Correlation Between Social Vulnerability and Elevated Suicide Risks Discovered

Summary: Social determinants of health are linked to suicide risk, with the suicide rate nearly doubling between the least and most socially vulnerable counties.

The study proposes several public health and economic policies that could reduce suicide rates by targeting social vulnerability in communities, such as improving access to mental health services and quality healthcare, and building stronger social networks.

Key Points:

  1. Social vulnerability is closely linked to higher suicide risk, with suicide rates nearly doubling between the least and most vulnerable counties.
  2. To address social determinants of health that contribute to suicide risk, the study suggests improving access to mental health services, healthcare, and building stronger social networks.
  3. The research emphasizes the importance of targeted interventions to communities at higher risk and highlights the need to address social and economic disparities to prevent needless deaths.

Source: University of Chicago

More than 45,000 Americans died by suicide in 2020, a 30% increase over 2000, making it the 12th leading cause of death in the U.S.

Studies have shown that the social and environmental factors where people live, like exposure to violence and crime, access to quality health care, food insecurity, job opportunities, and air pollution, are connected to suicide rates.

Now, a new research study from the University of Chicago provides more statistical evidence that social determinants of health are tightly linked to suicide risk.

The study, published in JAMA Network Open, shows that the suicide rate nearly doubled between the least socially vulnerable counties and the most socially vulnerable, clearly showing that programs designed to address health and economic disparities in these areas could prevent needless deaths.

“A huge factor in the rate of suicide in the United States is social vulnerability of the community that you live in,” said Robert Gibbons, PhD, the Blum-Reise Professor of Medicine and Public Health Sciences at UChicago and senior author of the study.

“A doubling in the suicide rate is an earthquake. It’s enormous. If you can stratify risk and know that people in a community are going to be that much more at risk, that’s huge because you can target interventions to those communities.”

The study began as a class project for a course Gibbons teaches in statistical applications for graduate students and undergrads. A previous class looked at associations between lithium in ground water and diagnoses of bipolar disorder and dementia in the U.S., which was published in JAMA Psychiatry in 2018.

The new project built upon recent work published in Health Services Research by Loren Saulsberry, PhD, Assistant Professor of Public Health Sciences, Diane Lauderdale, Professor and Chair of Public Health Sciences, Gibbons, and others, that developed a new metric for measuring social determinants of health called the Social Vulnerability Metric (SVM).

The SVM pulls in more than 200 variables from 17 publicly available, nationally representative databases focusing on demographics like age, education, employment status, housing and transportation, and health insurance coverage.

The resulting model produces a score that summarizes a person’s vulnerability due to social risk factors and provides a measure of how able one might be to weather different events or cope with long-term challenges.

The SVM is highly correlated with mortality rates at the county level, and it tracked with zip code level outcomes like COVID-19 mortality and vaccination rates, and emergency room visits for asthma.

Gibbons’ students divvied up the statistical work to see how the SVM was associated with suicide rates, using publicly available data on deaths by suicide provided by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) for 2016 to 2020. Shuhan Liu, who is a master’s student in statistics at UChicago and recently accepted in the doctoral program in statistics at Northwestern University, led the analytical work, and Samuel Morin, a fourth-year undergraduate at UChicago, spearheaded work to extract data from the CDC sources.

The team calculated SVM scores for U.S. counties and divided them into 10 tiers from the least vulnerable counties to the most. They saw an 82% increase in suicide rate from the lowest to highest tier, as measured by the SVM.

The team also evaluated another tool developed by the CDC called the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), that measures the impact of social determinants of health. There was a 56% increase in suicide rate from the lowest to highest risk group according to this measure.

This is a drawing of a depressed woman
The SVM is highly correlated with mortality rates at the county level, and it tracked with zip code level outcomes like COVID-19 mortality and vaccination rates, and emergency room visits for asthma. Image is in the public domain

Gibbons said this shows an undeniable link between the impact of these factors and suicide.

“We didn’t want to make any assumptions that the social vulnerability metric and its relationship to suicide was a simple linear function in our analysis of the data, but it turns out the higher the SVM, the higher the rate of suicide.”

The research team proposes several common-sense public health and economic policies that could reduce suicide rates by targeting social vulnerability in communities, such as improving access to mental health services by opening more clinics and changing the availability of insurance coverage and cost for these services.

Social isolation is another factor that contributes to vulnerability, and community programs, shared public spaces, and volunteer services could build stronger social networks.

Increasing access to quality health care in general would also make a difference, particularly in rural areas by expanding Medicaid coverage and increasing the number of health care workers in underserved areas. It’s a laundry list of solutions to address a host of social and health disparities, given enough support.

“All of these are major factors in the social vulnerability metric, and we can improve that by improving the quality and access to mental and general physical health care,” Gibbons said. “These are malleable social features. We don’t have to wait for a social revolution to invoke change.”

About this mental health research news

Author: Matt Wood
Source: University of Chicago
Contact: Matt Wood – University of Chicago
Image: The image is credited to Neuroscience News

Original Research: Open access.
Social Vulnerability and Risk of Suicide in US Adults, 2016-2020” by Robert Gibbons et al. JAMA Network Open


Social Vulnerability and Risk of Suicide in US Adults, 2016-2020


There were over 45 000 suicides in the US in 2020, making suicide the 12th leading cause of death. If social vulnerability is associated with suicide rates, targeted interventions for at-risk segments of the population may reduce US suicide rates.


To determine the association between social vulnerability and suicide in adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants  

This cohort study analyzed 2 county-level social vulnerability measures (the Social Vulnerability Index [SVI] and the Social Vulnerability Metric [SVM]) and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention–reported county-level suicides from 2016 to 2020. Data were analyzed November and December 2022.


County-level variability in social vulnerability.

Main Outcomes and Measures  

The primary outcome measure was number of county-level adult suicides from 2016 to 2020, offset by county adult population during those years. The association between social vulnerability (measured using the SVI and the newly created SVM for 2018) and suicide was modeled using a bayesian-censored Poisson regression model to account for the CDC’s suppression of county-level suicide counts of less than 10, adjusted for age, racial and ethnic minority, and urban-rural county characteristics.


From 2016 to 2020, there were a total of 222 018 suicides in 3141 counties. Comparing the least socially vulnerable (0% to 10%) to the most socially vulnerable (90% to 100%) counties, there was a 56% increase in suicide rate (17.3 per 100 000 persons to 27.0 per 100 000 persons) as measured by the SVI (incidence rate ratio, 1.56; 95% credible interval, 1.51-1.60) and an 82% increase in suicide rate (13.8 per 100 000 persons to 25.1 per 100 000 persons) as measured by the SVM (incidence rate ratio, 1.82; 95% credible interval, 1.72-1.92).

Conclusions and Relevance  

This cohort study found that social vulnerability had a direct association with risk for adult suicide. Reducing social vulnerability may lead to life-saving reduction in the rate of suicide.

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  1. “Life is Most Important in Life is The Most Important Truth in Life”

    This truth can be worded many different ways and still mean the exact same thing. The truth that I am talking about here is the the Truth of the Importance of Life.

    Any person who looks both ways before crossing the street and who drives on the correct side of the road know that this truth is correct, is always true, and applies equally to all life.

    What they may have connected is that needless and preventable suffering and death can only occur after the truth that life is most important is dismissed and stifled.

    This truth is not only the truth that all other truths depend on to then in-turn be true themselves, and the truth that defines who we each are and why, and how important we each are and why, and the truthful reason to live,love and care for life, and more, it is also the truth that is the cure and prevention of all needless and preventable suffering and death.

    Anyone claiming to represent life’s truthful interests who does not agree with it is a person who does not honestly care about life.

    David Wishengrad
    Exorcist, 1st class

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